| 摘要: |
| 针对基础工程中混凝土结构在现场暴露环境下的寿命预测问题，提出了1种基于Copula函数的多退化因素剩余寿命预测方法.先选取质量损失和超声声速作为关键退化因素，针对其不同退化轨迹，对实际采集数据进行退化建模，得到混凝土剩余寿命的边缘分布函数；再通过Copula函数建立各退化因素间的相关关系，将混凝土剩余寿命的边缘分布进行融合，得到其联合分布函数.结果表明：选择质量损失和超声声速这2个退化因素有助于建立混凝土在现场暴露环境下的退化模型，并得到其剩余寿命的边缘分布函数；基于Copula函数预测西宁市现场暴露环境下的混凝土使用寿命约225个月，损伤发展始于第180个月左右. |
| 关键词: 混凝土 寿命预测 现场暴露 Copula函数 多退化因素 可靠度 |
| DOI：103969/j.issn1007 9629201702006 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(51168031，51468039) |
|
| Lifetime Prediction for Concrete under Field Exposure Based on Copula Function |
|
QIAO Hongxia, ZHU Binrong, LU Chenggong
|
|
Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Civil Engineering of Gansu Province, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou 730050, China
|
| Abstract: |
| The lifetime prediction of concrete under field exposure was established by a general method for the remaining useful life of concrete with multiple degradation factors. The mass loss and ultrasonic velocity were selected as the key degradation factors. Considering that the different degradation factors were characterized by their different degradation paths, marginal distribution functions of the remaining useful life of concrete were obtained based on the measured data. After that, Copula function was adopted to establish the relationship between the degradation factors. The marginal distribution was mixed together, and the remaining useful life joint distribution function of concrete was obtained. The results indicate that selection of mass loss and ultrasonic velocity will be available to establish the degradation model of concrete in field exposure environment, and the relevant marginal distribution function of the remaining useful life will be obtained. The service life of concrete under field exposure in Xining is about 225 months, and the damage development period begins at about the 180th month. |
| Key words: concrete lifetime prediction field exposure Copula function multiple degradation factor reliability |
